Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change in Marginal Areas: The Search for an Appropriate Methodology

Parry, M.L. & Carter, T.R. (1983). Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change in Marginal Areas: The Search for an Appropriate Methodology. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-83-077

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Abstract

With the support of the UN Environmental Programme a major 2-year project is currently being initiated to investigate the impacts of short-term climatic variations and the likely long-term effects of CO2-induced climatic changes on agricultural output at the sensitive margins of food grains and livestock production.

This paper sets the stage for the above-mentioned project. It reviews the notion of climate-related marginality, and proposes to measure the impact of climatic fluctuations on marginal areas by a temporal change in the level of risk of harvest failure and spatial shifts of crop pay-off boundaries. The practical usefulness of these measures is illustrated by several case examples from the US, Canada, and Northern Europe. Finally, the paper outlines the crop/climate simulation model, successfully applied for analysis of the effects of possible climatic changes on cereal yields in Northern England. Over the next two years it will be the aim of the IIASA project to further develop this methodology and to evaluate the impact on food production of possible changes in climate.

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