Dynamics of the Forest Sector: Problems and Policies

Grossmann, W.-D. & Loennstedt, L. (1983). Dynamics of the Forest Sector: Problems and Policies. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-83-072

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Abstract

The dynamic behaviors of the forest sector are generated by the acting together of economic, ecological, social, and biological parts, characteristics and by geographical distribution such as of the forest industrial complexes, of the resources, and of the customers. These dynamics are influenced by and in turn are influencing factors such as wood availability, possible uses of wood, processing technologies, and economic activities. The first chapter of this paper deals with how to depict and how to evaluate such interrelationships and changes causing both problems and opportunities for the forest sector.

In the discussion of the uncertainties in the future of the forest sector and of possible actions, it is necessary to specify different possible future dynamic developments for the above mentioned factors. This is done in some scenarios in the second chapter. The impacts of these factors and their future dynamics impacts can be evaluated with respect to cost competitiveness and wood availability for the individual company as well as for the structural change of the whole sector, for example, with respect to the location of the forest industry and the characteristics and distribution of the forest resources.

A set of scenarios as a base for discussions with representatives of the sector can serve to find out the desirability of those developments and to help specify actions to change the undesired developments. At the end of the paper some actions are listed to deal with poor cost competitiveness and shortage of wood.

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