Monte Carlo Simulation and First Order Error Analysis: Two Possible Methods to Cope with Uncertainties in Water Quality Modeling, Applied on a Specific Model

Kamer, S. van de (1983). Monte Carlo Simulation and First Order Error Analysis: Two Possible Methods to Cope with Uncertainties in Water Quality Modeling, Applied on a Specific Model. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-83-009

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Abstract

Two methodologies to cope with uncertainties in water quality data and models are considered, namely Monte Carlo simulation and first order error analysis.

To illustrate the methods, results of applications on a water quality model, which in fact is an 8 state variable, 14 parameter submodel of a comprehensive model for lake Neusiedl, are presented.

Monte Carlo simulation based methods are shown to be useful for calculating valuable model predictions based on an adequate calibration.

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