Low probability accidents

Kunreuther, H. & Linnerooth, J. (1984). Low probability accidents. Risk Analysis 4 (2) 143-152. 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00943.x.

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Experts frequently differ on their estimates of risk associated with accidents that have a low probablity of occurrence. Those who stand to benefit from siting a new facility often perceive it as acceptably safe, using expert opinion to defend their argument. Potential losers find data to suggest that the new technology is too hazardous. This paper contrasts the role of risk assesments of low probability events in siting Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. In both cases the decision process was a rather lengthy one due to conflicts between interested stakeholders. The paper discussed the potential of compensation and insurance as policy tools for facilitating negotiation. Four criteria for improving the siting process in any country are also outlined.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: low probability event; compensation; decision processes; siting problems; risk analysis
Research Programs: Management and Technology Area (MMT)
Bibliographic Reference: Risk Analysis; 4(2):143-152 [June 1984] (Published online 29 May 2006)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:54
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:35
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/2389

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