Experience with the Operation of an Energy Model Set

Schrattenholzer, L. (1984). Experience with the Operation of an Energy Model Set. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-84-076

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Abstract

The Energy Group of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has developed a set of models to describe the global energy system. This was first used in the late seventies to formulate two scenarios for global energy demand and supply for the period 1980-2030. The original model set consists of individual models and blocks of assumptions that are arranged in the form of a loop. The information flow between the elements of the set is deliberately not fully automated, so as to enhance human control of the modeling process. The model set operates iteratively, i.e., tentative assumptions made in one part of the set are subsequently modified in the light of results in other parts of the set until satisfactory consistency over the set as a whole is achieved. This paper reports on the conclusions arrived at by the author during his participation in the work of formulating the IIASA scenarios and subsequent applications of the model set. The main methodological conclusion is that there is an important trade-off between model detail and model usability, which calls for great care in the do not leave the terminal without writing, etc. design of both the model and the analysis to be undertaken.

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