On the Long-Term History of Energy Markets and the Chances for Natural Gas

Marchetti, C. (1984). On the Long-Term History of Energy Markets and the Chances for Natural Gas. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-84-039

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Abstract

In this paper, Cesare Marchetti presents a review of the development of world energy markets over the last two centuries. This is then used as a springboard for projections of the likely future penetration of natural gas. Marchetti's hypothesis is that society can be viewed as an ensemble of component structures engaged in Darwinian competition; his analysis leads to interesting and perhaps surprising conclusions on long-term energy price stability, the future role of natural gas, and the vexed question of whether or not there really is a global energy shortfall.

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