Kondratieff Long Waves In Aggregate Output? An Econometric Test

Bieshaar, H. & Kleinknecht, A. (1984). Kondratieff Long Waves In Aggregate Output? An Econometric Test. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-84-034

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Abstract

From the very beginning of the long-wave debate (interrupted several times in the past), at the forefront of interest has been the question of reliable proof of the existence of long waves as reflected in real economic data series. Once proved it would be easier to correlate them with other important economic variables and look for possible causal relations.

However simple this may seem in principle, this paper shows how difficult this problem is in practice. Even if no one questions the fluctuations of economic data, the problem of finding in them a coherent pattern is complicated. The novel method described here seems to be well suited for depicting trends in "long economic movements" -- an expression that draws less opposition than the simple idea of periodic cycles. Important insight is shown in the authors' analysis of the data of many countries.

This paper is a significant step in pursuit of the most important issue in the long-wave debate -- to produce reliable data and methods that will shed the necessary light on the question of the existence of long waves.

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