An Approach to Uncertainty of a Long Range Air Pollutant Transport Model

Alcamo, J. & Bartnicki, J. (1985). An Approach to Uncertainty of a Long Range Air Pollutant Transport Model. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-85-088

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Abstract

This paper presents a preliminary framework for analyzing uncertainty of a long range air pollutant transport model. This framework was used to assess EMEP model uncertainty. The uncertainty problem is defined in a decision-making context and a distinction is made between uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, and model calibration/verification. A taxonomy is introduced to organize uncertainty sources. The taxonomy includes: model structure, parameters, forcing functions, initial state and model operation. These categories are further subdivided into diagnostic and forecasting components. To limit the number of uncertainties for quantitative evaluation, some uncertainties are "screened". Methods are introduced to evaluate uncertainties. These include (1) Monte Carlo simulation of composite parameter, forcing function and initial state uncertainties, and (2) statistical analysis of EMEP source-receptor matrices. Preliminary results of applying this methodology to the EMEP model are presented.

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