Energy Scenarios: Science-Theoretical Aspects of Energy Forecasting

Kraus, M. (1985). Energy Scenarios: Science-Theoretical Aspects of Energy Forecasting. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-85-034

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Abstract

Starting off with the historical development of energy forecasting, Chapter 1 describes the emergence of conditional prognosis--so-called if-then statements--from an increasingly politicized energy environment. Inherent limits of energy demand forecasts are shown as stemming from basic structural differences between economic and social sciences and natural sciences. The scenario approach is discussed in greater detail. To clarify the various scenario terms a distinction is made between a narrower and broader scenario concept. The IIASA energy model of 1980 is used as an example to show specific characteristics of the scenario technique and the problems arising during its application.

A general definition of prognosis is given at the beginning of Chapter 2, based on the deduction scheme of Hempel and Oppenheim. Thereafter, the structural identity of explanation and prognosis is disussed. In response to the current lack of universal laws in the economic and social sciences, an attempt is made to develop a pragmatic understanding of forecasting laws. The extent to which prognosis can ever be founded is investigated through the example of the "Muenchhausen-Trilemma". Two important features of prognosis are analyzed, conditionality and reflexivity, and their political implications are discussed. Finally, the problem of forecast evaluation is investigated and methodological criteria for an evaluation are presented.

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