A Simple Model of Chinese Agriculture

Neunteufel, M. (1985). A Simple Model of Chinese Agriculture. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-85-018

Preview

Text WP-85-018.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

A simple model of Chinese economy is developed which is compatible with IIASA FAP Basic Linked System. The purpose of the model is to provide a tool to generate internally consistent scenarios of China's agricultural development and trade patterns.

On the basis of a very simple model covering the entire Chinese economy, alternative scenarios of foreign trade of ten commodities (nine agricultural and tenth being the "nonagricultural commodity") are generated up to 1990.

The model consists of five blocks: an exogenous population block; a government block, where some policy variables can be set; a production, and exchange and an accounting block. The most elaborate block is that for production, describing the development of the main productive factors of Chinese agriculture. The exchange block creates the bridge between domestic production, consumption and world markets.

Both production and consumption of the commodities considered are dealt with. Export of a commodity results from production surplus over consumption requirements; import requirements stem from higher consumption requirements than can be covered by domestic production. The balance of payments is handled as a limiting factor. Nutritional standards are computed as well.

Several simulation runs have been carried out, most of them describing some variants and follow-ups of alternative Chinese political measures, and using some plan-numbers. The model work was completed in December 1982.

Actions (login required)

View Item