The Future of Lung Diseases: COPD Model for Slovakia

Rusnak, M., Yashin, A.I., & Kristufek, P. (1985). The Future of Lung Diseases: COPD Model for Slovakia. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-85-049

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Abstract

The initial explorations of bronchial tree pathology can be traced back to the early part of the nineteenth century. Laennec was the first to demonstrate the so-called "catarrh pulmonaire" and its significance to the disease, but the attention of physicians centered upon tuberculosis and pneumonia up until the 1950s. The death of more than 4000 -- mainly older -- people during a catastrophic four-day smog in London (1952) and the realization that chronic bronchitis and its complications were the fatal causes has proved the importance of studying this group of diseases.

Intensive research has demonstrated the necessity for a more precise definition of the group of illnesses described under the general term chronic nonspecific lung diseases. Common efforts of specialists from all over the world have culminated in accepted definitions of chronic bronchitis, pulmonary emphysema and bronchial asthma by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Recently, a common term has been used by mostly American authors for all of these diagnostic units: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Numerous studies have shown an undesirable spread of COPD in the developed countries. The high and still growing prevalence of these diseases creates a burden on health-care systems, which leads to an associated growth in health care expenditures and in the number of sick-leave cases and disabled people.

It is generally understood that the causes of COPD are largely from within the society itself: life style (smoking), environmental (air) pollution, working conditions, and social and economic circumstances are believed to be responsible for the onsets of these chronic diseases. The growth in COPD prevalence is influenced by recent demographic trends, especially population aging.

The large proportion of people with these sicknesses makes a complete registration of all tine cases a practical impossibility. But COPD prevalence must be estimated in some way because of the necessity to forecaste and plan appropriate health care resources. We have developed an appropriate tool for the analysis of possible trends and describe COPD model in this paper. The authors hope that it will be of some help in answering specific questions about COPD development. The model uses data from the Slovak Socialist Republic and allows the user to test several scenarios.

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