Relationship between Timber Consumption and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries with respect to the Effect of the Oil Price Explosions

Bencze, T. (1985). Relationship between Timber Consumption and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries with respect to the Effect of the Oil Price Explosions. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-85-032

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Abstract

The relations between the consumption volume of timber manufacturing products and economic growth has already been stated by several investigations. There are also such analyses which indicated a very close relationship between the level of economic development and per capita consumption. It should also be mentioned that the recognition of these relationships played an important role in the formation of timber consumption forecasts elaborated by FAO.

In my study I intend to publish those results and experiences which I managed to obtain in the course of analyzing the facts and figures in relation to the OECD countries between 1960-1982. I carried out my investigations in three major groups of timber manufacturing products. The product groups "sawnwood and sleepers", "wood-based panels" and "paper and paperboard" practically represent the whole scale of manufactured products. At the judgement of the economic development level and economic growth, respectively, I used the per capita GDP values in constant 1975 year US$ prices for certain countries. In case of the three product groups the analyses comprise every year of the period and every OECD country. In the course of investigations I applied on one hand graphic analytical methods and on the other hand correlation-regression-analytical methods as well.

During my work I primarily investigated the following major issues:

What kind of a relationship can be observed between economic growth and the development of the consumption of timber manufacturing product groups in certain countries?

Are the relationships suitable to be used for making forecasts by taking into consideration the constantness and intensivity of the trend? To what an extent did oil price explosions influence the relationship between economic growth and timber consumption?

Did their effect result in steady or temporary changes? How did the relationship develop between economic development level and timber consumption in case of investigated countries? To what an extent did the character and the intensity of the relationship change during the more than two decades?

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