Practicing the Future: Implementing "The Policy Exercise Concept"

Toth, F.L. (1986). Practicing the Future: Implementing "The Policy Exercise Concept". IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-86-023

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Abstract

Methods to synthesize and assess scientific information for use in policy making range from large models to expert committees, from scenario driven free-form gaming sessions to fast and simple model building workshops. Each method has its own merits and shortcomings in general terms and each is better than the other for a particular set of practical problems. In this paper, a new approach called the policy exercise is presented. The procedural roots of this approach are to be found in free-form gaming, the Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (AEAM) technique, and operational gaming. A policy exercise is a flexibly structured process designed to act as an interface between academics and policy makers. Its function is to synthesize and assess knowledge accumulated in several relevant fields of science for policy purposes in light of complex practical management problems. Scenario writing of "future histories" and scenario analysis via the interactive formulation and testing of alternative policies that respond to challenges in the scenarios are at the heart of the policy exercise.

After describing the project background and some special concerns about formulating a procedure for a policy exercise, a general overview is provided to define roles, and some of the rules and activities in the process. Scenarios are the most important building blocks of the policy exercise procedure. Four types are defined and discussed in Section 2. This is followed by a detailed outline of the prccedure through its three phases: preparations, workshop, and evaluation.

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