Toward a Global Model: A Methodology for Construction and Linkage of Long-Range Normative Development Models

Kulikowski, R. (1975). Toward a Global Model: A Methodology for Construction and Linkage of Long-Range Normative Development Models. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-75-135

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Abstract

In recent years an increasing activity in the field of modeling of development processes on the regional, national, and global level can be observed.

In global models a descriptive approach is commonly used while in the regional and national models an attempt is being made to employ the normative concepts which are regarded as rather useful tools for long-range planning purposes.

It is a general belief that the long-range planning and forecasting on the regional, national and (probably in the future) global level could be much improved if the existing models could be linked and fitted together. That requires, however, that the model aggregation and decomposition techniques or linkage methodology exists and can be used effectively, employing the available data bank.

In the present paper, an effort has been made to show that such a technique exists and can be used effectively for the construction of a class of models on the regional, national and global levels. Using that technique, we have already been able to construct (at the Institute of Organization and Management of the Polish Academy of Sciences) a class of models called the DR series. The core model (MRI) enables us to make long-range projections of national development in fifteen sectors of the Polish economy. Using the core model, a number of more specialized models (used for regional, environmental, education, R&D etc. -- projections) could be constructed. It is hoped that the model can be linked to the international trade model. As the data base, the Statistical Year Book published each year by the Polish Main Statistical Office has been used. The model accuracy, tested in historical runs has proved to be encouraging to further development.

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