A Model for Estimating Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in Europe

Luebkert, B. (1987). A Model for Estimating Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in Europe. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-87-122

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Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to calculate nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in a consistent way for all European countries. First, the principles of NOx formation are reviewed, and results of a feasibility study carried out to develop an NOx emission submodel for inclusion into IIASA's RAINS model to quantify acid deposition in Europe are summarized. It is shown that NOx emissions are most closely correlated to fossil fuel consumption and that this consumption is, therefore, the best single statistical parameter to estimate a country's NOx emissions from the various source sectors. Existing NOx emission inventories and emission factors are analyzed, and a set of comparable data from the OECD emission inventory for major air pollutants (OECD, 1987) is identified which is appropriate for statistical analysis in order to estimate sector- and fuel-specific emission coefficients. Such aggregate coefficients are determined using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis for the sector/fuel combinations presently contained in RAINS to calculate sulfur emissions. Fuel data used in the regression analysis are from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 1987a,b).

Emission coefficients determined in this way are entered into RAINS and NOx emissions are determined for all 27 European countries. Comparison of the results with reported national totals as well as reported traffic NOx shows generally good agreement, i.e., within 20 percent. If NOx emissions calculated by RAINS are compared to EMEP estimates (United Nations, 1987) on a total European scale (USSR excluded), RAINS overestimates the EMEP total by only four percent. Relative contributions as calculated by RAINS for the transportation sector also reflect numbers reported by countries, being on the average 54 percent of total NOx for OECD Europe and 16 percent for non-OECD Europe (excluding the USSR). A qualitative discussion about the uncertainty of estimated emission coefficients and resulting emission rates is also included. The approach described in this paper is, thus, promising and shows a way in which one can use a set of comparable data in a "top-down" approach to extrapolate the data to other countries where less detailed data are available. The method also allows for testing future emission scenarios with and without assumed emission reduction policies.

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