Are there Schumpeterian Waves of Innovations?

Kleinknecht, A. (1987). Are there Schumpeterian Waves of Innovations? IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-87-076

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Abstract

This paper responds to a recent criticism of the empirical evidence of bunching of innovations. An examination of various long-run innovation samples shows that there is indeed very poor evidence of innovation waves in the time before the mid-19th century. Thereafter, however, two long waves of major innovations occur, both having a lead of approximately 10-15 years over the economic long wave as identified in an earlier study. A t-test confirms that these waves can be clearly distinguished from random fluctuations. In the final section some suggestions for further research are outlined.

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