Building Bridges and Tunnels: The Effects on the Evolution of Traffic

Marchetti, C. (1988). Building Bridges and Tunnels: The Effects on the Evolution of Traffic. IIASA Status Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: SR-88-001

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Abstract

A general model for the generation of traffic is described. It is based on the assumption that a traveler tries to maximize the territory he can visit and exploit, by properly allocating a travel money budget (TMB) and a travel time budget (TTB) among available transportation modes (Zahavi, 1979). On the other hand, the evolution of total traffic, with constant boundary conditions, is assumed to follow the usual dynamics of human activities, described by systems of logistics contained in time boxes of about 55 years or the so-called Kondratiev cycles.

This conceptual frame is applied to a certain number of cases, where boundary conditions have changed because natural barriers have been overcome by bridges and tunnels, in order to grasp the essential modifications in traffic that follow and their mechanisms.

The results of these analyses have been applied to the case of the Messina Bridge, in order to evaluate its effects on traffic in different circumstances. It appears that the greatest impact of such a bridge will be on local traffic, and consequently its greatest potential utility ought to be found there. It may also stimulate the development of a linear metropolis -- for instance, along the contiguous coasts of Calabria and Sicily -- with decisive consequences for the structure of human settlements in that region.

The first part of this paper is dedicated to assembling an efficient model of traffic generation, including the effects of geographical impediments and their removal. Part II deals with a number of case studies where the model's validity is tested. Part III applies the model and analogical experiences to the case of the Messina Bridge, to assess the consequences of different configurations.

This study was supported with a grant from Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulle Attivita Terziarie.

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