Saturation Level of NC Machine-Tool Diffusion

Tani, A. (1988). Saturation Level of NC Machine-Tool Diffusion. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-88-078

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Abstract

Analysis and forecasting of NC machine diffusion constitute one of the main activities of the IIASA Project "Computer Integrated Manufacturing" (CIM). Numerical Control (NC) machine-tools are regarded as a basic component of flexible manufacturing systems (FMS).

This paper is the second paper at IIASA relating to the diffusion of NC machines. The first paper, entitled "CIM Diffusion: The case of NC-machines in the U.S. Metalworking industry", was written by I. Tchijov [Tchijov, 1987].

The author, A. Tani, has improved the method of forecasting the saturation level of NC machines in this paper by establishing a bridge between two kinds of data -- consumption and installation data -- for both cases, the USA and Japan.

The saturation level of the NC share estimated in this paper is about five times higher than in the previous estimation. The result seems more realistic and reliable.

Subsequent work in this direction will also provide a method to make forecasting of the diffusion of FMS and CIM more reliable.

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