Estimation of Local Values of Monthly Mean Temperature, Effective Temperature Sum and Precipitation Sum in Europe

Henttonen, H. & Maekelae, A. (1988). Estimation of Local Values of Monthly Mean Temperature, Effective Temperature Sum and Precipitation Sum in Europe. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-88-061

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Abstract

The present paper presents a method for estimating the local values of meteorological variables from measurements in the vicinity of the subject point. Two interpolation methods are considered: the moving averages method, which calculates a weighted average of observations in the neighborhood of the subject point, and the combined method, which improves the moving averages estimate by utilizing the statistical dependence on latitude and altitude of the variables.

The methods are applied to the estimation of the local values of monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation sum, and the effective temperature sum in Europe. The input data consists of 30-year time series of monthly values from a network of meteorological stations, comprising 666 stations for monthly mean temperature and 517 for precipitation.

The methods are tested by subtracting one station at a time from the observation network and calculating the values of the climatic variables from the rest of the data. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the smoothed mean temperature in the period May-August is approximately 0.7 degrees Centigrade, and that of the precipitation sum in the order of 70mm. In areas with a denser network of observations, the RMSE is lower.

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