Future Land Use Patterns in Europe

Brouwer, F. & Chadwick, M.J. (1988). Future Land Use Patterns in Europe. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-88-040

Preview

Text WP-88-040.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to focus on a set of "not-impossible" but still plausible land use patterns in Europe until the middle of the next century. Changes in technologies and environmental transformations are vital determinants for future land use patterns that are taken into account. The paper therefore makes an assessment of the following: (1) A Conventional Wisdom scenario for agriculture covering the period 1980-2030. This scenario is based on the consideration that present trends of increasing yields in European agriculture are extrapolated. (2) A scenario for changing land use patterns for the period 1980-2030, considering various trends in the application of new technologies (i.e., a scenario that is based on a rapid increase in land productivity, and a scenario to improve the marginal land, and which is based on the adaptation to poor local environmental conditions). (3) A scenario for changing land use patterns that is based on a change in climate. Two scenarios of climate change are included here: (i) for the year 2030 that is based on an analysis of historical analogues, and (ii) for the year 2050 that is based on a general circulation model.

Actions (login required)

View Item