Long-Term Economic Development and Demand for Forest Products

Baudin, A. (1988). Long-Term Economic Development and Demand for Forest Products. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-88-005

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Abstract

The FAO Outlook Studies were published in October 1986. Projections of the demand and supply of forest products were presented up to year 2880 by country and for aggregates of countries. The Outlook Studies were based on two alternative economic scenarios: the FAO and Chase-Manhattan GDP growth-rate projections. The effect of varying the input to the FAO model system was, however, modest and did not reflect the inherent uncertainty of long-term projections. As an alternative, a pessimistic economic scenario has been developed based on simple time-series extrapolations of GDP growth rates. This subjective/statistical scenario gives generally substantially lower growth rates than the main alternatives of the Outlook Studies. This paper presents the methods of making projections of the FAO model system and demonstrates the effect of varying the input economic growth rates. Furthermore, it stresses the uncertainty aspects of long-term projections of the demand for forest products.

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