(1) Future Trends in Factory Automation, (2) Technology Forecasts for CIM

Ayres, R.U. (1989). (1) Future Trends in Factory Automation, (2) Technology Forecasts for CIM. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-89-010. Reprinted from Manufacturing Review, 1(2) [June 1988] and 2(1) [March 1989]

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Abstract

(1) This paper is a review of contemporary manufacturing technology, from both a U.S. and world perspective. It emphasizes the historical background of the current trends toward computerized automation in terms of the increasing societal demands for performance, which in turn generates requirements for ever greater complexity and precision. This is the root of the "quality crisis." The author believes that the next industrial revolution will present a fundamental shift from the use of human workers as "micro" decision makers (machine controllers) in factors to the use of "smart sensors" for this purpose. The paper elaborates some of the more specific implications.

(2) The second part of this report identifies a number of aggregated ("top down") measures of technological capability and penetration for CIM and discusses the problems of forecasting. The four proposed measures discussed in detail are as follows: 1.) Capital flexibility: the ratio of software costs to total invested capital; 2.) Machine utilization as a fraction of a 24-hour day (to reflect unmanned operations); 3.) Fraction of NC tools that are not 'stand-alone' but are controlled by higher level computers; and 4.) Order-to-delivery time. Rough estimates of recent and likely progress in the first three measures are given.

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