The Profile of Intercohort Increase

Keyfitz, N. (1989). The Profile of Intercohort Increase. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-89-052

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For tracing the growth of populations over past time a useful indicator is cohort size. While a cohort moves through time, and therefore cannot be counted in the same way as the population of any given moment, yet its size can be measured as births less deaths up to some intermediate age. This may be estimated from a series of censuses, without reference to vital statistics or other data. The technique is applied to the onset of the world wide population expansion that followed World War 11. In several Asian countries it took place in a single five-year period with a multiplication of earlier intercohort increases by as much as threefold. The jump occurred early in Burma, late in Indonesia, and suddenly in both of those countries; in India it was more gradual, so that the onset of the current population expansion is less sharply marked.

Calculation also shows a corresponding discontinuity in the rate of population change after World War I in a number of countries, but of lesser magnitude. Insofar as one may speak of a population explosion occurring in the world today the method of intercohort increase identifies its date of onset as immediately after World War II.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:59
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:13

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