Technology Diffusion in the Coal-Mining Industry of the USSR - An Interim Assessment

Astakhov, A., Grubler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990, & Mookhin, A. (1990). Technology Diffusion in the Coal-Mining Industry of the USSR - An Interim Assessment. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-91-004. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 38(3):223-256

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Abstract

This article presents an analysis of technological changes in the underground coal-mining industry of the USSR. It describes within a quantitative framework the evolution of the coal-mining industry in general, based on macro-indicators of output, production intensity, and labor productivity. The article then discusses qualitatively the different historical phases of technology development inside the industry and concludes with a quantification of technological diffusion trajectories, based on standard bi- and multi-variate models of technological substitution of the Fisher-Pry and Marchetti-Nakicenovic type.

The paper not only provides insight into the dynamics of technological change in the coal-mining industry of the USSR, but also illustrates the applicability of standard technology diffusion and substitution models for the analysis of technological change in a planned economy. Although not exhaustive the analysis presents a first step for the development of more comprehensive models of the causal forces behind the patterns of technological change identified, and for international comparison of technology diffusion in the coal-mining sector.

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