Towards the Fifth Kondratiev Upswing: Elements of an Emerging New Growth Phase and Possible Development Trajectories

Grubler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990 & Nowotny, H. (1990). Towards the Fifth Kondratiev Upswing: Elements of an Emerging New Growth Phase and Possible Development Trajectories. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-90-007. Reprinted from International Journal of Technology Management, 5(4) [1990].

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Abstract

This report takes a long-term view on economic growth from an essentially Shumpeterian perspective. The authors consider that since the early 1970s we have been witnessing a volatile and turbulent transition towards a new phase of socio-economic development, in which the diffusion of a host of interrelated new technologies, institutions and forms of organization could lead to a renewed period of economic growth and prosperity. They argue that the beginning of such a diffusion phase, in which the ultimate characteristics of the future development trajectory are being shaped, could constitute an opportunity window for reducing the disparities between countries as a result of their different degrees of economic development. They consider in addition that the successful catching-up will depend more on an effective introduction and diffusion of the elements of the emerging new development regime than on a growth model along the trajectories and intensity level of the previous model of development.

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