Low Energy, Low Emissions: SO2, NOx and CO2 in Western Europe

Alcamo, J. & Vries, B. de (1990). Low Energy, Low Emissions: SO2, NOx and CO2 in Western Europe. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-90-073

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Abstract

A link is made in this paper between proposed low energy scenarios for different Western European countries and the amount of pollutants that may result from these scenarios. Air pollutant emissions are calculated for the ten countries for which low energy scenarios are available. These scenarios emphasize stringent energy efficiency, maximizing the use of renewable (other than nuclear) energy, and minimizing the use of fossil fuels. Under these low energy scenarios, the average per capita energy use (year 2030) in the ten countries is estimated as 97 GJ/person, which is a decrease of 38% relative to 1980.

Using the energy consumption figures from the low energy scenarios, together with sector and fuel-specific emission factors from Europe, the resulting emissions of SO2, NOx. and CO2 were computed. These estimates do not take into account any add-on pollution controls over and above what was in place in 1980, or changes in combustion technology; these would result in still lower emissions. Under the low energy scenarios, power plants will continue to be the most important SO2-producing sector, and transportation the most important NOx-producing sector. For CO2, however, no single sector is most important in producing emissions.

The low energy scenarios (year 2030) result in a reduction of 54% for SO2 emissions, 37% for NOx emissions, and 41% for CO2 emissions compared to their 1980 levels. It was concluded that energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy use, if economically and institutionally feasible, will be an effective long term option for simultaneously reducing the gaseous emissions that are major contributors to regional acidification and photochemical air pollution, and potential global warming.

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