Using Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) to Optimize Operation Schedules

Uryasev, S.P. & Valerga, H. (1990). Using Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) to Optimize Operation Schedules. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-90-030

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Abstract

This is the first report of a work on time dependent probabilities initiated as a cooperation between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and IIASA in 1990. The treatment of the underlying mathematical model is rather theoretical, but the intent has been to cover a broad range of applications. Originally the formulation was initiated by the problem of optimization of test intervals at nuclear power plants. There have however been also other applications proposed to be treated within the proposed modelling framework. One specific problem is the selection of the most suitable time instant for a major repair or retrofitting at a plant. The time horizon of the model can be selected either short stretching only over a few weeks or very long to encompass the complete life time of a depository of spent nuclear fuel. The advantage with the problem formulation is that it enables the inclusion also of monetary considerations connected to risks and the actions for decreasing them. The intent in formulating the model is that it will be used for a computerized optimization of selected decision variables.

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