Demographic, Social nd Economic Aspects of the Pension Problem: Evidence from Twelve Countries

Gonnot, J.-P. (1990). Demographic, Social nd Economic Aspects of the Pension Problem: Evidence from Twelve Countries. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-90-015

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Abstract

In all Western countries included in this study, and under any demographic scenario, the aging of the population will reach, in the first half of the next century, a level which implies a dramatic deterioration of the performance of the state pension systems. In Eastern European countries, a similar level can only be reached if both mortality and fertility fall to an extent unforeseen at present although it is not improbable. Parallel to aging, substantial changes in the marital composition of the elderly and strong improvements in benefit entitlements for women will be observed. Different solutions to the pension problem are tested and compared. These show that there exists much difference between countries in this respect and that the dramatization arising from pure demographic considerations is in most cases exaggerated.

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