Evolution of Transport Systems: Past and Future

Grubler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990 & Nakicenovic, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604 (1991). Evolution of Transport Systems: Past and Future. IIASA Research Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-91-008

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Abstract

In this report the authors develop a scenario for future developments in the transport sector and their implications for future demand. In developing a comprehensive mode-space-time coverage of the evolution of transport systems, the analysis indicates that present transport systems are approaching a number of limits: market saturation in leading countries and an increasing awareness of the social and environmental disbenefits associated with a further intensification in the use of present-day oil-based transport systems. The report describes an innovative scenario from a historical perspective, taking into account a number of institutional and physical constraints to significant future increases in the the car population and air travel demand at the global level.

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