An Exploratory Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

Antonovsky, M.Y. & Buchstaber, V.M. (1991). An Exploratory Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-91-011. Reprinted from Tellus B, 43(2):171-187 [1991] 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1991.00011.x.

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Abstract

A new methodological approach for analysis of monitoring data is discussed. The main ideas are illustrated for the example of the CO2 problem. The analysis of CO2 concentrations obtained from a global network of monitoring stations permitted the authors to construct a nonparametric evaluation of the spatial-temporal distribution of this field. They propose a parabolic parametrization of the long-term tendency of this field as a function of time (in one-year time steps). A function of the predicitve ability of a model is defined on the basis of the technique of "supervised training". This function is computed for a parabolic model and it is shown that this model constructed for the first 15 years of observations evaluates the tendency for the next 15 years quite well. The main problem that is solved in this paper is how to correlate the projections of different models for the carbon cycle and different scenarios of the annual release of carbon into the atmosphere with the projection that reflect parametrization of the trends of CO2-monitoring data.

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