Long Range Population Prospects of Finland in the European Context

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Prinz, C. (1991). Long Range Population Prospects of Finland in the European Context. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-91-017

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Abstract

The population of Finland is projected along eleven different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100. The definitions of these scenarios follow those of a recent study (Lutz, 1991) on Europe and North America. They range from constant rates to assuming replacement fertility versus a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.1, mortality stagnation versus a strong increase in life expectancy, and no immigration versus 30,000 migrants per year. The results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010 and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence of the Finnish baby boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration scenario.

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