Nuclear Energy and its Future

Marchetti, C. (1992). Nuclear Energy and its Future. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-93-018. Reprinted from Perspectives in Energy, 2:19-34 [1992].

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Abstract

In this paper I have extensively applied the model of cultural diffusion (a) to the market penetration of nuclear energy at the level of the world and of single nations; (b) to the interaction with and the reaction of the media to nuclear events; and (c) to legislation related to ecological matters.

The result of this analysis is (a) that the stasis in nuclear construction is due to the approaching end of the Kondratiev cycle; (b) that opposition to nuclear plant construction may have important qualitative, not not quantitative effects; (c) that media coverage of nuclear construction can be modeled and has no effect on market penetration although it might have on accidents; (d) that nuclear power station construction will probably restart during this decade on a grand scale.

A scenario is drawn for a final configuration, with nuclear energy as the sole primary energy source.

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