What Difference Do Alternative Immigration and Integration Levels Make to Western Europe?

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Prinz, C. (1992). What Difference Do Alternative Immigration and Integration Levels Make to Western Europe? IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-92-029

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Abstract

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three subpopulations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed from Eastern Europe and from the rest of the world add to the non-native populations while different levels of "integration" describe the transition intensities from the non-native sub-populations to the native category.

The paper gives alternative population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios with different assumptions on net migration, "integration", as well as fertility and mortality in the three categories. The results indicate that (i) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (ii) the rate of integration into the native population influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (iii) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (iv) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (v) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.

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