Global Scenarios for Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Manne, A.S. & Schrattenholzer, L. (1993). Global Scenarios for Carbon Dioxide Emissions. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-94-006. Reprinted from Energy, 18(12):1207-1222

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Abstract

The paper describes global scenarios for carbon dioxide emissions. They are based on the global scenarios formulated with the Global 2100 model and described in the book "Buying Greenhouse Insurance" by Manne and Richels. The input data used by Manne and Richels were modified to reflect scenario results of individual countries that contributed to the CHALLENGE network. Within CHALLENGE, researchers explore globally efficient measures to reduce the risk of adverse climate change. The approach used by the participants in these activities is to formulate reference scenarios for future carbon emissions. Any carbon mitigation is then measured relative to the reference case.

With Global 2100, it is possible to quantify the effects of a hypothetical carbon tax on energy demand and supply. In the formulation of the model, this is equivalent to introducing all mitigation measures of which the specific costs are less than the tax. The main conclusion of the paper is that with costs of up to US$ 200 per ton of carbon, global energy related carbon dioxide emissions could be stabilized between 1990 and 2020.

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