The Transportation Sector: Growing Demand and Emissions

Grubler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990 (1993). The Transportation Sector: Growing Demand and Emissions. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-94-005. Reprinted from Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 3(2):179-199

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Abstract

The paper discusses the transportation sector from two perspectives that have recently received increased attention at both national and international levels: global environmental change and its relationship to population growth.

The transportation sector is of particular interest for two reasons. First, energy demand for global transportation is the fastest growing end-use category, and has proven inelastic in response to the energy price increases that prevailed in the 1970s and early 1980s. Second, the impact of population growth on natural resource consumption and the resulting environmental pollution is perhaps the most indirect of energy demand categories. Access to, and ways of utilizing transport modes and associated technologies are the key variables determining levels of resource consumption and environmental impacts.

The paper concludes that the impact of population growth on transport energy demand is rather weak if analyzed at the appropriate level of disaggregation. Moreover, the paper candidly illustrates some of the complexities underlying transportation choices and the wide heterogeneity across different regions, countries, and social strata.

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