How Likely are Catastrophes? Natura Non Facit Saltus

Anonymous (1975). How Likely are Catastrophes? Natura Non Facit Saltus. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-75-050

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Although catastrophes are a research topic of the greatest current importance, it can be asked: how likely is it that a given situation will contain a catastrophe? Casual observation, such as that of Aristotle, indicates that catastrophes are indeed quite rare. In fact, this intuition can be quite rigorously justified if we take care to define likely. In what follows we examine the likelihood of a catastrophe occurring in a very general dynamic model.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
Research Programs: General Research (GEN)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 01:42
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:07

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