Scenarios for Mauritius, 1990-2050

Holm, E., Prinz, C., & Wils, A.B. (1993). Scenarios for Mauritius, 1990-2050. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-93-019

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Abstract

This Working Paper constitutes Chapter 16 of the book manuscript, "Understanding Population-Development-Environment Interactions: A Case Study on Mauritius". The Mauritius case study was carried out by IIASA in scientific collaboration with the University of Mauritius and funded by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

The paper presents and discusses findings from the interdisciplinary computer model simulating alternative future population-development-environment interactions for the period 1990 to 2050. It serves to answer some of the main questions raised by the project, such as "what is the effect of population growth and education on development and the environment of Mauritius".

In a first section, some general elements which should be kept in mind when doing scenario experiments are discussed, relating to hard-wired and soft links in the PDE-Mauritius model. Next, alternative "unadjusted" future scenarios are constructed and compared in order to identify the partial impact of various population, economic, and environmental assumptions.

A subsequent section demonstrates how those unadjusted scenarios are transformed into consistent multi-component scenarios, labeled as "adjusted scenarios". Those scenarios present consistent development alternatives and hence offer answers to the relevant questions under various development paths.

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