Mortality in the Former Soviet Union, Past and Future

Andreev, E., Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073, & Willekens, F. (1993). Mortality in the Former Soviet Union, Past and Future. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-93-013

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Abstract

The paper considers the most recent data (1980-1990) on mortality by sex and cause for the former Soviet republics. The following causes were chosen: diseases of the circulatory system; neoplasms; accidents, poisonings and violence; diseases of the respiratory system; infectious and parasitic diseases; digestive system diseases and a group of all others and unknown causes.

The first effort of applying an APC approach to these mortality data by cause of death for the former USSR is performed. The results of this study showed the applicability of a chosen method for interpretation of mortality trends.

Despite the social tension in this part of the world, mortality from most causes of death decreased, though the trend towards mortality decline within the period was uneven. For example mortality trends were influenced by such events as the anti-alcohol campaign, the earthquake in Armenia and the Chernobil catastrophe.

Extrapolating trends of the 1980s for each group of causes, it was possible to expect a general decline of mortality from most causes of death under consideration except neoplasms and chronic diseases that are included in the group "other causes". Mortality from neoplasms showed stable increase. Due to extreme instability of mortality from the causes of death that comprise the group "others and unknown causes", projection for this group was not performed.

According to our projection, in the absence of new cataclysms, life expectancy in all of the former USSR republics except Armenia will increase by one year for males and females by the year 2000. The maximum increase of life expectancy may be anticipated in the Central Asian republics as a result of mortality decline from exogenous causes of death.

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