Population Concentration in Less Developed Countries (LDCs): New Evidence

MacKellar, F.L. & Vining Jr., D.R. (1994). Population Concentration in Less Developed Countries (LDCs): New Evidence. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-122

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Abstract

Economic theory associates the increase in population concentration, i.e. the proportion of national population residing in the core economic region, with scale and agglomeration economies, which Wheaton and Shishido (1981) estimated to persist until realper capita national income reaches 5,000 1985 U.S. dollars (USD). After this point in a country's economic development, they predicted, population re-distribution towards the core region will cease and the proportion of national population residing in the core region will commence to decline. The experience of developed countries (DCs) in the 1970s and 1980s broadly conformed to this pattern, albeit with exceptions. Evidence from less developed countries (LDCs) through the 1980 round of censuses led Vining (1986) to propose a weakened version of the USD 5,000 rule in which this point is characterized only by a slowing of rate of population re-distribution towards the core, not by an outright reversal.

This paper updates previously-reported trends in population re-distribution in LDCs and reports on many new countries. Taken as a whole, post-war data reinforce the need for caution of the sort expressed by Vining. While there is a weak negative correlation between the rate of net migration into the core region and per capita income, the share of population residing in the core region may continue to rise when per capita income has grown to well beyond USD 5,000.

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