Population Dynamics in Poland, 1950-2050: Internal Migration and Marital Status Changes

Kotowska, I.E. (1994). Population Dynamics in Poland, 1950-2050: Internal Migration and Marital Status Changes. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-074

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Abstract

This paper reports the findings of the Polish case study in which population projections by age, marital status and region of residence have been calculated by use of the LIPRO model. That multidimensional dynamic projection model was developed at NIDI by Van Imhoff and Keilman (1991) to study population and households dynamics. The course of the demographic processes in Poland differs significantly for urban and rural subpopulations, so it was decided to apply that model to project changes in the marital composition of Poland's population by place of residence (urban/rural areas). The data necessary to run the model have been prepared using publications of the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO) and unpublished CSO materials. Several assumptions regarding the components of population dynamics were formulated. In the scenarios, special attention was given to internal migration and its possible influence on population composition (age and marital status) and population dynamics (births, deaths, marriages and divorces).

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