Biomass Scenarios, Present and Future: Evaluation of WEC's and Hall's Projections and Comparisons to IEW Poll Responses

Swinehart, S. (1994). Biomass Scenarios, Present and Future: Evaluation of WEC's and Hall's Projections and Comparisons to IEW Poll Responses. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-011

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Abstract

Biomass, renewable plant or animal material used for energy consumption, is currently an important energy source in many countries and may have a more prominent future role globally, especially if greenhouse gas reduction programs are implemented. Quantitative forecasts are difficult because present and past biomass usage is not well documented, mainly because of the difficulty of measuring the amount of non-commercial usage. This document reports current usage estimates and offers possible scenarios for future usage in 2020 and beyond. The main sources of data are the two World Energy Council (WEC) (1992) reports 1992 Survey of Energy Responses, 16th Edition and Energy for Tomorrow's World, Hall's (1991) "Biomass Energy" in Energy Policy, and IEW Poll Responses from the January 1993 overview (Manne and Schrattenholzer, 1993).

When looking at the available biomass literature, there are problems in performing accurate comparisons between different sources. Data for many regions were incomplete, and much of the available data was less useful than it could be due to lack of clarity. Problems and assumptions that were needed for any of the figures are listed, so that the reader can keep these imperfections in mind when viewing the projections.

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