An Approach to the Modeling of Global Environmental Problems

Sazonov, B. (1975). An Approach to the Modeling of Global Environmental Problems. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-75-001

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Abstract

Global environmental problems arise in close connection with problems of growing population. Advances in medicine which reflect success in science and technology have a population growth of unprecedented proportions. At present, the doubling time is about 25-30 years; i.e., in 1973 the population of the earth was 3,5 billion; in 2000 it will be about 7 billion. (For some developing countries the doubling time is about 18-20 years, for most of the developing countries about 100 years). Every year the population increases by 80 million. However, the earth is capable of supporting those 7 billion people. There are enough fats, proteins, vitamins and minerals for at least 30 billion people, if all countries adopt the best agricultural technology. 7 billion is very little, if the resources of the oceans will be taken into consideration.

However, these types of estimates are not correct -- climate and the oceans in 2000 will be a little bit different from those which we can see in 1974.

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