A Summary of the Joint IIASA and WEC Study on Long-Term Energy Perspectives

Grubler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990, Jefferson, M., & Nakicenovic, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604 (1995). A Summary of the Joint IIASA and WEC Study on Long-Term Energy Perspectives. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-95-102

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Abstract

The paper reports on a study on Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). All together three cases of economic and energy developments were developed that sprawl into six scenarios of energy supply alternatives extending until the end of the 21st century. The internal consistency of the scenarios was assessed with the help of formal energy models. The study took close account of world population prospects, economic growth, technological advance, the energy resource base, environmental implications from the local to the global level, financing requirements, and the future prospects of both fossil and non-fossil fuels and industries. Although no analysis can turn an uncertain future into a sure thing, the study identifies patterns that are robust across a purposely broad range of scenarios. The study also enables to relate alternative near term research and development, technology, economic, and environmental policies to the possible long-term divergence of energy systems structures. Due to the long lead times involved in the turnover of capital stock and infrastructures of the energy system, policies would need to be implemented now in order to initiate long-term structural changes in the energy system that would however become significant only after the year 2020.

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