Regret Analysis for River Water Quality Management

Jolma, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3490-7490 (1995). Regret Analysis for River Water Quality Management. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-95-004

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Abstract

The treatment of uncertainty inherent in water quality policy development and related modeling is a key issue. This is particularly true in the Central and Eastern European region which is characterized by high pollution levels, strong economic transition, lack of financial resources and scarce and imprecise data availability. Possibilities to account for uncertainties in policy development by a regret analysis approach were studied. The risks associated with regret in decision making were qualitatively and quantitatively defined. The design of a decision making procedure where these risks are accounted for was analyzed from a theoretical and practical viewpoint. A regret analysis procedure was implemented within an experimental decision support system (DSS) for water quality management of a river. This system was tested with a hypothetical situation where the best option of upgrading of a number of waste water treatment plants was to be selected from a small set of possible options. The main problem of analyses of this kind is the curse of dimensionality. The study shows that a modular approach, which uses already available software components and models, speeds up the building of a DSS.

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