The 1995 International Energy Workshop: The Poll Results and a Review of Papers

Schrattenholzer, L. & Marchant, K. (1996). The 1995 International Energy Workshop: The Poll Results and a Review of Papers. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-96-008. Reprinted from OPEC Review, XX(1) [March 1996].

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Abstract

The report summarizes the highlights of the 1995 IEW meeting held at the IIASA Conference Center in Laxenburg, Austria. It gives an overview of the poll results and presents two issues discussed at the meeting. The first focused on global and regional energy markets with a particular emphasis on the situation in countries undergoing economic transition in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union; the second topic concentrated on energy-related environmental issues with an emphasis on climate change. This report illustrates the usefulness of the IEW as a forum for establishing a consensus and assessing the divergence within the energy research community concerning likely future developments. The medians of the poll results represent the "conventional wisdom" about possible future trends of oil prices, primary energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions. The standard deviation is also presented in this report for future developments, and shows the degree of dissension within the research community. For some analyses, it is also useful to know the "extreme" views about the future within the research community, and these are given in the poll results that fall outside of the standard deviation.

The paper analyzes how the poll results have evolved over the past 15 years, and presents some of the salient reasons for the consensuses and disagreements concerning future energy-related developments.

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