Improving Population Assumptions in Greenhouse Emissions Models

Wexler, L. (1996). Improving Population Assumptions in Greenhouse Emissions Models. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-96-099

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Abstract

It is no surprise that population plays an important role in long-term models of greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change. Population represents both a primary scale factor for the size of the human economy and the fundamental unit at which societal welfare is measured.

This paper surveys the population assumptions in several important models of global warming in the 1990s, including energy models, integrated emissions models, and economic policy models. Choice of population inputs, the role of population variables in model equations, sensitivity analyses, and consideration of population policy are all described.

The paper finds room for improvement in the following areas: choice and provision of population projections, consistent treatment of age structure and urbanization, specification of relationship between per capita income and population, and the consideration of population policy in economic policy models. It is suggested that improvement in these areas would be greatly aided by interdisciplinary cooperation, especially between demographers, economists, and energy modelers.

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