Integrating Water into an Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Egypt

Yates, D. (1996). Integrating Water into an Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Egypt. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-96-031

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Abstract

Recent research indicates that larger countries, with multiple agro-climatic zones, have the capacity to adjust to marginal climate changes which could occur over the next century. However, in countries with fewer adaptation options and with increasing dependency on imports to meet growing domestic demands, climate change might have significant impacts. To date, little has been done on assessing integrated impacts of climate change in developing countries.

This motivates the need for improving and extending the research on the potential impacts of climate change on developing countries. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts on Egypt was performed; incorporating water resources, agronomics, land resources, socio-economics, and economic modeling into a consistent modeling framework. A monthly water balance model of the Nile basin was developed for determining water availability under climate change scenarios. A computable general equilibrium model of world agriculture was used and modified to address climate change issues in Egypt, with a focus on the water resources sector. Results indicated that continued structural transformation of the socio-economic system will be necessary to meet growing domestic demands for goods and services--caused by a growing population with a limited resource base. Three of four GCMs (Global Circulation Models) indicate increases in Nile flows which give rise to different development paths. This makes the issue of vulnerability and adaptation assessment difficult because there is a pressing need in Egypt to improve irrigation and agriculture efficiencies. Climate models forecasting increased Nile floods might serve only to delay the implementation of better management strategies through their bright outlook on available water resources.

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