Complex dynamics and control of arms race

Feichtinger, G., Behrens, D.A., & Prskawetz, A. (1997). Complex dynamics and control of arms race. European Journal of Operational Research 100 (1) 192-215. 10.1016/S0377-2217(96)00018-5.

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The aim of this paper is to show that asymmetric, nonlinear armament strategies may lead to chaotic motion in a discrete-time Richardson-type model on the arms race between two rival nations. Local bifurcation analysis reveals that 'complicated' dynamics will only occur if neither nation has an absolute advantage over the other one with respect to its level of armament and its capability to keep up the expenditures on armament. The calculation of Lyapunov exponents supports the existence of chaos. Since transitions to chaos can be identified with transitions to war, we use the Ott-Grebogi-Yorke-algorithm to stabilize the arms race model in the chaotic regime and improve the system's performance by making very small time-dependent changes of a parameter under control.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Nonlinear system dynamics; Arms race; Local bifurcation theory; Controlling chaos
Research Programs: World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference: European Journal of Operational Research; 100(1):192-215 (1 July 1997)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:08
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:15

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