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Andreev, E., Scherbov, S. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073, & Willekens, F.
(1997).
The Population of Russia: Fewer and Older. Demographic Scenarios for Russia.
Groningen Demographic Report 22, University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Groningen, Netherlands (1997)
Abstract
The paper presents the first ever demographic scenarios for the regions of Russia. Scenarios are developed for 49 oblasts (regions), 6 krays (territories), 21 republic, 1 autonomous oblast and 2 national cities, Moscow and St Petersburg. Five scenarios are considered: two optimistic scenarios, two medium scenarios and one pessimistic scenario. The scenarios are combinations of three mortality scenarios, two fertility scenarios and three migration scenarios. The main results are presented graphically for the 79 areas. Detailed results and a discussion of the differences between the scenarios are presented for 11 economic-geographic regions. The main findings of the scenario analysis are:
1. The population decline, which started in 1992, continues in all scenarios. The annual number of deaths exceeds the number of births by almost one million and the difference is fast increasing. The positive migration balanced, which reached half a million in 1995, compensates a large part of the excess deaths over births but it cannot prevent the population from declining. The expected population decline between 1995 and 2025 ranges from 2 million in an optimistic scenario (OLB) to 32 million in a pessimistic scenario (PHA), i.e. a decline by more than 20 percent in 30 years.
2. Aging of the population reaches unprecedented levels. Low fertility is the major reason for the decline. In 2025, Russia is expected to have 20 to 25 per cent less children than today, depending on the scenario. The decline in the population of working ages is expected to be between 14 and 25 percent. The pattern of aging changes over time. Up to 2010, the increase in mean age is caused by the decline of children (as a result of low fertility) and an increase in population of working age (15-59). Beyond 2010, the 60+ population rises sharply and the mean age increases accordingly. In 2025, the number of 60+ persons will be 28 million in the optimistic scenario (OLB), 61 percent of which will be females, and 22 million in the pessimistic scenario (PHA), with the proportion of females at 56 percent (number of 60+ in 1995: 22.5 million). The proportion females in the 60+ population declines in all scenarios because of the normalization of the age structure. The low number of males 60+ (and particularly 70+) today is to be attributed to the losses during the Second World War.
3. The spatial redistribution of the population out of Siberia to the European part of Russia, in particular the southern regions (North Caucasus and the Volga region). If current migration trends continue (stable migration scenarios - PHA) the share of the population living in the Far East economic-geographic region declines from 5.2 percent in 1995 to 3.5 percent in 2025. The North, North West and East Siberia economic-geographic regions see their share decline too, but less pronounced as the Far East.
| Item Type: | Other |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | World Population (POP) |
| Bibliographic Reference: | Groningen Demographic Report 22, University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Groningen, Netherlands (1997) |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | IIASA Import |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jan 2016 02:08 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Aug 2021 17:15 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5160 |
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