Estimating Investment Functions Based on Cointegration: The Case of China

Sun, L. (1998). Estimating Investment Functions Based on Cointegration: The Case of China. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-98-007. Reprinted from Journal of Comparative Economics, 26(1):175-191 [March 1998].

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Abstract

In the Chinese context, a persistent tension exists between system-generated investment ambitions and both the supply and the distributive barriers to these ambitions. This holds for both pre- and post-reform periods and across significant policy changes. As a result, the long-term investment function is characterized by equilibrium comovement among real fixed investment levels, grain output per capita as representative of necessary consumer goods, and effective energy supply per capita as representative of basic producer goods. A large part of the cyclical pattern of investment growth can be explained by the adjustment to the comovement path and by the relevant changes in energy supply and agricultural output.

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